The Value of Human Influence Within Intelligence-led Decision Making

In a world in which data is an ever-expanding resource for organisations, data driven forecasting and modelling is becoming more of an automated process. Data is sourced, cleansed and modelled, yet for the decisions that it influences to be effective, it must be turned into actionable Intelligence.

Most organisations understand the benefits of developing intelligence products in order to influence and often justify decisions, but analysts increasingly find themselves sifting through vast quantities of data, lacking context or perspective. To ensure that decision making is justified and accurate, Intelligencia Training emphasise the importance of developing muti source intelligence products, in which analysts apply both structured analytical techniques and critical thinking processes, increasing the product’s accuracy and confidence level.

Intelligence Analysts enable organisations to truly understand their available information, through the creation of actionable intelligence – providing clarity, structure, and accuracy. An Intelligence Analyst will follow the Intelligence Cycle subconsciously, yet we see increasing examples within the Intelligence community in which key elements of the cycle are missed, and intelligence outputs do not reach their full potential.

Are we Confusing the Intelligence Cycle?

The Intelligence Cycle is applied to Intelligence Operations worldwide. Whilst there are over a dozen slightly different versions used within the UK/US intelligence communities alone, the cycle follows the same general flow. It is a naturally occurring process used by Intelligence Analyst’s to process raw information and turn it into actionable Intelligence.

The Intelligence Cycle consists of four fundamental steps:

• Phase 1 – Direction,
• Phase 2 – Collection,
• Phase 3 – Analysis,
• Phase 4 – Dissemination.

The two themes that we see repeatedly are as below:

• 1) Collection driving Direction. Especially within fast paced operational environments the intelligence that we collect organically can often determine priority or analytical focus. In high risk environments, threat based intelligence will of course dictate focus, yet when organisations allow collection to drive the rest of the intelligence cycle they risk missing other areas of threat. When direction drives the collection process it can be planned, intelligence gaps more clearly identified, and resource established to fill those gaps. When we react to collection and allow that to dictate our focus we lost the structure and depth of understanding across all potential risks and as such the intelligence picture becomes tarnished by bias.
• 2) A lack of structured analysis. A culture exists across the intelligence community in which we sometimes perceive intelligence products as something with a classification and handling restrictions. The reality often means that we simply create classified information that is more difficult to share than it was in its original form. True intelligence should be the product of a recognised analytical process, including collation, evaluation, the application of structured analytical techniques as a minimum. Often the analyst should be trying to integrate with a wider intelligence picture and adding valued context and broader perspective. We often discuss the Who, What, When, Where, Why and How. Yet an analyst applying critical thinking should also determine “what if”, “what next”, why didn’t”. It is this ability to add human influence, context and at times, an element of informed subjectivity, that makes us so critical to the analytical process.

How can organisations ensure that human influence is effective within the development of intelligence?

It often requires a step back and review of existing working practices to determine whether the intelligence cycle is being effectively applied, without phases missing and in the correct order. Are intelligence requirements properly defined, articulated and understood. Does a collection plan exist to support those requirements and where gaps are identified, is there a strategy to fill gaps or mitigate risks caused by lack of insight? We should train analysts to apply appropriate structured analytical techniques and give them the confidence to apply the structured analytical techniques that they feel are appropriate to the problem set, teach them a range of techniques to afford them opportunity to select the right tool for the job. Encourage actual analysis over visual displays to impress a decision maker. Inclusion and justification of confidence levels and a culture in which we ask our analysts not just to tell us what they know, but also what they don’t, and why. It is this human element that truly adds value to the decision-making process.

The Intelligence Analyst Standard was developed in conjunction with a consortium of highprofile Government agencies, public sector departments and large private sector organisations. The Apprenticeship Standard replaced the previous framework in Intelligence Operations to provide a modern and appropriate training route for Intelligence professionals.

Having been key to the development of both the Standard and End Point Assessment Strategy, Intelligencia Training is the UK’s most experienced provider of vocational Intelligence training and continue to successfully deliver the Intelligence Analyst Apprenticeship Standard to a range of organisations across the public and private sectors through the Apprenticeship Levy.

The delivery model of the Apprenticeship Standard is broken down into three core stages as below.

Intelligence Theory and Fundamentals including:

• The Intelligence Cycle, Understanding Clear Direction, Intelligence Gaps, Key Terminology
• Sources of Information, Evaluation of Information, Collection Planning
• Critical Thinking, Analytical Assumption and Bias, Key Assumptions Check
• Dissemination and Influence. Methods to Maximise Intelligence Outputs, Audit Trails and Handling Codes, Disclosure of Information.
• Emotional Intelligence to Support Intelligence Processes.

These skills ensure parity and cohesion within the wider global intelligence community. It enables collective understanding amongst all apprentices to assist in developing technical understanding and technical expertise. Furthermore, this phase concentrates on pivotal transferable skills and behaviours such as emotional intelligence.

Applied Intelligence Analysis including:

• Temporal Analysis
• Geospatial Analysis
• Network Analysis
• SWOT Analysis
• Backcasting
• Comparative Case Analysis
• Analysis of Competing Hypothesis
• Cone of Plausibility

The applied analysis phase focusses on the core staples of the intelligence analyst’s skill set. Modules are separated thematically in line with the key areas of intelligence analysis, which enables their immediate application independently within the workplace. By completing the applied analytical phase of this programme every learner will be equipped with a range of relevant, highly beneficial analytical skills that remain with them for the duration of their career. This maximises opportunities to ensure information is turned into actionable intelligence.

Wider Skills to Support the Intelligence Analyst including:

• Cyber Security Awareness
• Internet Research and Investigation
• Mental Health Awareness
• End Point Assessment Preparation

This engaging delivery model is adding significant value to an ever-growing range of public and private sector departments reliant upon turning real time information into actionable intelligence significantly benefiting decision making processes.

To find out more about Intelligencia Training and the Intelligence Analyst Apprenticeship Standard, visit www.intelligenciatraining.com/intelligence-analyst. You can book a meeting with Intelligencia Training at www.intelligenciatraining.com/meeting or by calling 01234 381 660.